Now the breakdown by year, position irrelevant. I also have 4 groupings here of 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, 21-32. (In a couple occasions, pick 32 was actually pick 1 round 2 due to 31 teams years/ forfeited picks by punishment/ etc)
This reads as follows:
The year
Number of players achieving PB status
Number of player achieving 1st team AP
Average number of years on team
Number of players gone from team 3 years or less
2000:
1-5: 3 PB, 1 AP, 6.4 yrs, 0 gone
6-10: 2 PB, 1 AP, 6.2 yrs, 1 gone
11-20: 7 PB, 3 AP, 7.7 yrs, 0 gone
21-32: 1 PB, 1 AP, 4.3 yrs, 6 gone
2001:
1-5: 2 PB, 1 AP, 6.4 yrs, 0 gone
6-10: 1 PB, 1 AP, 5 yrs, 1 gone
11-20: 4 PB, 1 AP, 6.7 yrs, 0 gone
21-32: 6 PB, 1 AP, 6.16 yrs, 1 gone
2002:
1-5: 1 PB, 1 AP, 6.8 yrs, 0 gone
6-10: 3 PB, 1 AP, 7.2 yrs, 0 gone
11-20: 4 PB, 3 AP, 5 yrs, 2 gone
21-32: 2 PB, 1 AP, 5.83 yrs, 3 gone
2003:
1-5: 3 PB, 1 AP, 7.2 yrs, 1 gone
6-10: 3 PB, 3 AP, 9 yrs, 1 gone
11-20: 2 PB, 1 AP, 6.1 yrs, 2 gone
21-32: 3 PB, 3 AP, 5.41 yrs, 3 gone
2004:
1-5: 4 PB, 1 AP, 11.8 yrs, 0 gone
6-10: 3 PB, 0 AP, 5 yrs, 0 gone
11-20: 5 PB, 1 AP, 7.6 yrs, 0 gone
21-32: 2 PB, 1 AP, 5.5 yrs, 4 gone
2005:
1-5: 2 PB, 0 AP, 5.2 yrs, 1 gone
6-10: 1 PB, 0 AP, 3.6 yrs, 3 gone
11-20: 5 PB, 5 AP, 6.7 yrs, 2 gone
21-32: 4 PB, 3 AP, 7.58 yrs, 1 gone
2006:
1-5: 3 PB, 0 AP, 7 yrs, 0 gone
6-10: 1 PB, 0 AP, 6 yrs, 0 gone
11-20: 5 PB, 2 AP, 5.9 yrs, 2 gone
21-32: 5 PB, 1 AP, 6.83 yrs, 0 gone
2007:
1-5: 2 PB, 2 AP, 6.2 yrs, 2 gone
6-10: 1 PB, 1 AP, 5.2 yrs, 1 gone
11-20: 5 PB, 2 AP, 5.9 yrs, 3 gone
21-32: 6 PB, 1 AP, 5.58 yrs, 2 gone
2008:
1-5: 2 PB, 2 AP, 7.8 yrs, 0 gone
6-10: 1 PB, 1 AP, 4.4 yrs, 3 gone
11-20: 4 PB, 1 AP, 6.3 yrs, 2 gone
21-32: 3 PB, 2 AP, 5 yrs, 2 gone
2009:
1-5: 1 PB, 0 AP, 5.2 yrs, 2 gone
6-10: 1 PB, 0 AP, 5.6 yrs, 0 gone
11-20: 2 PB, 0 AP, 5.6 yrs, 1 gone
21-32: 4 PB, 1 AP, 5.67 yrs, 1 gone
2010:
1-5: 4 PB, 3 AP, 7.2 yrs, 0 gone
6-10: 3 PB, 0 AP, 5.6 yrs, 1 gone
11-20: 6 PB, 4 AP, 8.1 yrs, 0 gone
21-32: 4 PB, 1 AP, 6.17 yrs, 3 gone
2011:
1-5: 5 PB, 4 AP, 9.2 yrs, 0 gone
6-10: 3 PB, 3 AP, 6.8 yrs, 1 gone
11-20: 4 PB, 2 AP, 6.6 yrs, 0 gone
21-32: 4 PB, 2 AP, 6.75 yrs, 4 gone
2012:
1-5: 3 PB, 0 AP, 3.8 yrs, 3 gone
6-10: 2 PB, 1 AP, 5.4 yrs, 1 gone
11-20: 3 PB, 1 AP, 6.5 yrs, 0 gone
21-32: 5 PB, 3 AP, 6 yrs, 3 gone
2013:
1-5: 3 PB, 1 AP, 6.4 yrs, 1 gone
6-10: 0 PB, 0 AP, 3.4 yrs, 3 gone
11-20: 3 PB, 0 AP, 4.8 yrs, 0 gone
21-32: 6 PB, 4 AP, 5.17 yrs, 2 gone
2014:
1-5: 2 PB, 1 AP, 4 yrs, 2 gone
6-10: 3 PB, 0 AP, 6.8 yrs, 1 gone
11-20: 7 PB, 3 AP, 6 yrs, 2 gone
21-32: 4 PB, 0 AP, 4.3 yrs, 5 gone
2015:
1-5: 3 PB, 1 AP, 4.8 yrs, 1 gone
6-10: 3 PB, 1 AP, 4.4 yrs, 1 gone
11-20: 3 PB, 1 AP, 5.2 yrs, 3 gone
21-32: 2 PB, 0 AP, 4.25 yrs, 5 gone
2016:
1-5: 5 PB, 2 AP, 5.8 yrs, 0 gone
6-10: 2 PB, 2 AP, 4.6 yrs, 1 gone
11-20: 2 PB, 0 AP, 4.7 yrs, 3 gone
21-32: 1 PB, 0 AP, 3.17 yrs, 4 gone
2017:
1-5: 2 PB, 1 AP, 4.4 yrs, 1 gone
6-10: 3 PB, 3 AP, 5.4 yrs, 1 gone
11-20: 4 PB, 1 AP, 5.6 yrs, 0 gone
21-32: 4 PB, 3 AP, 4.42 yrs, 5 gone
2018:
1-5: 3 PB, 0 AP, 4.8 yrs, 1 gone
6-10: 3 PB, 2 AP, 4.6 yrs, 1 gone
11-20: 8 PB, 2 AP, 5.4 yrs, 1 gone
21-32: 1 PB, 1 AP, 4 yrs, 4 gone
2019:
1-5: 4 PB, 2 AP, 4.8 yrs, 0 gone
6-10: 2 PB, 0 AP, 4.6 yrs, 0 gone
11-20: 4 PB, 0 AP, 4.4 yrs, 2 gone
21-32: 2 PB, 1 AP, 4 avg, 4 gone
Totals:
1-5: 57 PB, 24 AP, 6.16 yrs, 15 gone
6-10: 41 PB, 20 AP, 5.44 yrs, 21 gone
11-20: 87 PB, 33 AP, 6.04 yrs, 25 gone
21-32: 69 PB, 30 AP, 5.28 yes, 62 gone
going year by year it’s clear that not every year 1 can say that earlier is better.
Multiple seasons top 5 were clearly better than 6-10. A few were very even.
I noticed as I did this, there is a definite argument that picking 11-20 nets a better player than 6-10 and is closer to the 1-5 grouping.
it’s also maybe coincidence that years that 1-5 do not perform well, 6-10 generally perform poorly as well.
We obviously don’t know how things will pan out until a few years have gone by to include, maybe it was just one of the “down” years as a whole.
from my position, I will agree that 1-5 has a better percentage of “hit” over 6-10 and a slight edge over 11-20 HOWEVER, I don’t believe the difference is so significant and matched with the unknown of “down” year or not to ever consider tanking.
People would think I’m crazy to argue titans should win games if they were sitting at 8 to fall back a couple spots to 12 or 13 but there is definite evidence that would suggest that to be a good move.
so take it all however you like. Hopefully you have some data you didn’t before. Maybe after another 5 or 10 years the same research should be followed again to see IF or how the game is changing causing drafts to change.
Enjoy.