I'd say theres a 50% chance Derrick Henry wins MVP.
teams have dared Ryan tannehill to beat them and now everyone knows he can. When tannehill posted his 16th game as a starter for the titans I saw infographics comparing his 16 games to aarong Rodgers MVP season and tannehill had better stats. They also compared him to mahomes stats and they were equal... tannehill is a goat and everyone in the league knows it now.
This has lead to defenses forced to not bite on play action and has forced them to delay their pursuit of Henry by a bit... I noticed this a couple games ago where Henry is just getting thru the line of scrimmage very easily, which results in him falling forward for 6 yards nearly every play.
Combine that with the fact that Derrick henry was great in December last year, I believe he could average 150 yards for these last 5 games and hit the 2000 yard mark.
If he doesn't do this, it is still highly likely that he becomes the league leading rusher for the 2nd time in a row. This puts him in historically elite company of Jim brown, Eric Dickerson, emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders and edgerrin James.
Given his resume from last year where he carried the entire team into the AFC championship, and his resume this year which could be similar, it is a no brainer that Derrick Henry is the most valuable player.
Yes I understand the politics of the award and there is a chance that the league will give it go mahomes because they need to create a new Brady figure but having Derrick Henry on your team is lightyears better than having the 2nd best rb on your team whereas you could put 5 different QBs on the chiefs and they are a superbowl contender anyway